Analysis highlights the stakes for Democratic governors: opt in and deliver billions for families, or watch resources flow to other states
Washington, DC — Education Reform Now (ERN) today released a new analysis projecting the potential financial impact of the Educational Choice for Children Act (ECCA), a federal tax credit scholarship program set to launch in 2027. The report estimates that if governors opt into the program and engage families effectively, ECCA could redirect more than $24 billion nationally each year to Scholarship Granting Organizations (SGOs), funding tutoring, school supplies, tuition, and other critical academic supports.
The memo outlines a number of participation scenarios, showing that even modest taxpayer engagement could translate into significant resources. At just a 1% participation rate among eligible taxpayers (“Redirectors” — those with $1,700 or more in federal tax liability), states would raise over $800 million annually. At higher engagement levels, such as 15% or 30% participation, the potential climbs into the tens of billions.
“This analysis demonstrates a golden opportunity for governors: by opting into ECCA, they can unlock billions in new funding and resources at no cost to their state budgets,” said Jorge Elorza, CEO of Education Reform Now. “Governors who seize this opportunity can shape the program in their states, deliver tangible results for families, and show that they’re actually listening to parents, not party orthodoxy or special interests.”
Elorza continued, “This is a moment for political courage. ECCA is already law and it puts practical solutions within reach. Opting in is about proving that families, not politics, come first. Governors have a chance to deliver more options, better resources, and student-centered innovation for working families, all while demonstrating that they’re willing to put students above the status quo.”
Unlike state-level tax credit programs that have relied on a small pool of high-net-worth donors, ECCA is structured to encourage broad-based participation. Every taxpayer who meets the threshold has the option to redirect up to $1,700 of their taxes from the federal government to an SGO of their choice. That design, combined with national visibility and potential federal promotion, positions ECCA to reach scale far beyond typical state programs.
The analysis also notes that states that are proactive in promoting the program — by partnering with employers, tax preparers, and community organizations — are most likely to capture its full potential. Conversely, states that opt out risk losing out entirely, as donations from their taxpayers will simply flow to SGOs in other states.
Elorza added: “This is a rare win-win: families gain new resources, schools gain new partners, and governors can deliver solutions without tapping state budgets. Opting in is a no-brainer; it’s sound policy, and smart politics.”
Read the full projections here: ECCA PROJECTIONS
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