DFER CT Playbook: Election 2020 Preview!


Who’s Voting in Connecticut?

Connecticut, solidly blue and low in electoral college heft, will not impact the outcome of next Tuesday’s presidential election like a “swing state”. That has not slowed enthusiasm, and could have significant consequences in many down ballot races. 

Connecticut has recorded an all time high in registered voters. Last night, October 27th at 11:59 PM, was Connecticut’s voter registration deadline. The state has seen a surge in registrations, making history with 2,295,644 new voters, including over 624,000 new registrants since 2016. New enrollment includes 41% unaffiliated voters, 37% Democratic, and 21% Republican registrants, and less than 1% of other parties. This number still is subject to change as Connecticut allows for Election Day Registration, commonly expected in a Presidential year. 

The newly added option of filing for an absentee ballot as a condition of COVID-19 has led 673,811 voters to request absentee ballots and nearly 500,000, or nearly 70%, of these ballots have been returned a week out from Election Day. When it comes to returning absentee ballots this year, Democrats have the advantage there as well. Roughly 28% of registered Democrats, 16% of unaffiliated voters and 14% of registered Republicans have returned their ballots as of yesterday. However, there are still nearly 80% of registered Connecticut voters who have yet to vote. 

Based on the survey our affiliate ERNA CT conducted last week, despite significant evidence that voting by mail is secure, many voters still express concerns about both the integrity of voting absentee and by mail. Only about half of all voters — 49% — say they trust the mail-in or absentee approach as much as in-person voting, while 43% say they do not. As we saw in our polling, 61% believe Connecticut should join with 44 other states by passing an early voting law.

And Who Are They Voting For?
The state’s most consequential elections are likely at the legislative level, where races will  decide the balance of power in the State House and State Senate. In the State Senate, Democrats are seeking to grow their 8 seat majority; while in the State House, Democrats are looking to grow their 31 seat majority. 

In terms of trends, we will continue to keep an eye on Fairfield County and whether Democrats could maintain momentum from 2018 which includes protecting first term Senators Alex Kasser and Will Haskell, and possibly knock off State Senator Tony Hwang in his spirited rematch with Democrat Michelle McCabe. In the House, two numbers we’ll be keeping an eye on: 11 seats that flipped in 2018 and 12 seats that Trump carried in 2016. In both chambers, we anticipate Democrats to maintain sizable majorities, but the politics of these competitive races will speak to demographic trends that have been clear over the last four election cycles in and around Fairfield County. 

In April, we released our preview of the elections; and much of the dynamics have remained the same with the exception that there were several other retirements including House Minority Leader Themis Klarides (which means three out of four caucuses are expecting to have new leadership in 2021!). During this unprecedented election year, in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, results could point to a very different and important year in Hartford in 2021.

Now, GO VOTE!

PRESS RELEASE: New ERNA-CT Polling Finds Connecticut Voters Have Mixed Feelings On Vote By Mail

DATE: October 19, 2020
CONTACT: Amy Dowell | Amy@dfer.org 

Connecticut Voters Have Mixed Feelings On Vote By Mail
Majority Still Plan To Vote In Person, but Record Numbers Will Vote Absentee 

October 19, 2020 — A new Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Education Reform Now Advocacy CT finds that Connecticut voters are split on whether they believe voting by mail or absentee ballot is as secure as in-person voting, with the majority of voters still planning to do so in person on Election Day this Nov. 3. 

According to the survey, which was conducted on Oct. 14 and 15, 77% of voters had not yet voted, and 84% of that group said they plan to vote in person. Despite significant evidence that voting by mail is secure, many voters still express concerns about both the security of voting absentee and by mail. Only about half of all voters — 49% — say they trust the security of absentee ballots and vote by mail as much as in-person voting, while 43% say they do not. 

Connecticut passed laws earlier this year to make it easier for people concerned about COVID-19 to vote, including allowing for “no excuse” absentee ballot voting. Importantly, a vast majority of voters — 84% — say they are aware of their new options for voting. 

A majority of Connecticut voters would like to see expanded access to voting, with 61% saying the state should pass a law allowing for early voting in-person. Currently, Connecticut is one of only six states nationally to not offer any form of early in-person voting for all elections. 

“These numbers show that, while Connecticut will certainly see a large increase this year in voting by mail and absentee ballot, many of our voters remain unnecessarily skeptical about these tools—enthusiasm is high and Connecticut will have lots of people at the polls on Election Day,” said Amy Dowell, State Director of Education Reform Now Advocacy CT.  “The good news is that Connecticut voters are aware of their new options for voting safely and securely during COVID, and most voters would like to see the state expand access to offer in-person early voting on a permanent basis, like the majority of other states.” 

Other key findings include:

  • 33% of voters said they would not vote by mail under any circumstances, while an additional 25% said they would prefer not to vote by mail, but would consider it. 
  • Only 11% of voters said they would prefer to vote by mail.
  • Asked to rank the most important issues for them when choosing a candidate, 37% of voters said “jobs and the economy” was most important, while 27% chose “responding to COVID-19” and 10% chose “lowering healthcare costs.”

A memo from Public Policy Polling with survey results can be found here. 

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About Education Reform Now Advocacy CT
Education Reform Now Advocacy CT is the 501(c)(4) nonprofit affiliate of Education Reform Now CT, that seeks to elect leaders who will support policies that benefit all students—particularly Black and Latino students. ERNA’s advocacy group supports ERN CT’s legislative advocacy work.

Coalition work on desegregating CT and a national education platform

This weekly segment by Democrats for Education Reform CT looks at the top education stories Democrats are watching, providing bite-sized analysis and links to recent articles. On the roster this week: coalition work on desegregating CT and a national education platform.

Desegregate CT

Yesterday, a coalition called “Desegregate CT”—made up of over thirty organizations and legislators—held a press conference to unveil a legislative agenda of zoning reforms to address the inequities resulting from having segregated communities in our state. The press conference included legislators like House Majority Leader Matt Ritter, Senator Doug McCrory, Senator Saud Anwar, and Representative Jason Rojas. Later in the afternoon, the Lamont Administration announced that an upcoming special session will focus on a narrow set of issues, excluding housing. However, the Governor did say that a second special session is still under discussion for September.

We are proud to be a part of the Desegregate CT coalition because we believe that housing opportunity is indistinguishable from educational opportunity in our state. In fact, before the 2020 Legislative Session came to an unexpected halt, we had worked closely with Representative Rojas on a bill that would have linked education and housing needs by providing financial incentives via school construction grants to municipalities that undertake serious efforts to create more inclusive housing and zoning policies. We look forward to continuing these efforts for children and families in 2020 and beyond.

Joe Biden: Ready for Change

Earlier this month, Joe Biden addressed members of the National Education Association, calling the teaching profession the most important in the country. That same day, during his Mount Rushmore speech, President Trump described teachers as training students to hate America. The contrast between the two presidential candidates is truly on full display.

Yesterday, poised for meaningful change, our national affiliate, Education Reform Now co-signed an ambitious education agenda for the next presidential administration. ERN joined more than a dozen education and civil rights organizations (such as the Center for American Progress and the National Urban League) who hope to see the next US President addressing ongoing systemic inequities in public education—including a K-12 agenda of:

  • Promoting school finance and resource equity;
  • Increasing teacher pay and providing differentials for high-need schools and subjects;
  • Overhauling educator preparation;
  • Preserving assessments and accountability under the Every Student Succeeds Act;
  • Expanding choice among quality public schools, including public charter and magnet schools; and
  • Ensuring access to personalized and online learning.

It’s time for an ambitious platform that prioritizes the importance of students and teachers across this country. See below for more details on the proposed platform.

Reopening Schools Shouldn’t Be Political

On Friday, the Editorial Board of the NY Times published an opinion, emphasizing the academic and socio-emotional need for reopening, and noting that this will require both more federal funding and more physical space for safe, in-person learning. Today, the Hartford Courant‘s Editorial Board stressed that “Donald Trump is making a tough situation worse.” Indeed, over the past week President Trump has called both for watering down the CDC’s recommendations on how schools can reopen safely and for cutting federal funding to districts that don’t fully reopen in the fall. The NY Times editorial actually urges local officials to ignore the President, and instead follow safety measures based on actual science when determining how best to maximize in-person learning. While public safety is of the utmost importance, we hope that state and federal governments will also consider a more strategic approach to tackling the learning losses and ongoing academic needs of students after prolonged school closures. (ICYMI, see our research below on some states that are getting it right.)

See the original post here

ADVISORY: DFER National’s Shavar Jeffries Joins FB Town Hall with Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

DATE: 07/01/2020

CONTACT: Amy Dowell | Amy@dfer.org

What:  This evening, Democrats for Education Reform National President Shavar Jeffries joins Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff, along with Senators Doug McCrory and Will Haskell, for a virtual town hall about how we can improve opportunities for all Connecticut students in our state’s schools and colleges. Jeffries has served as an Assistant Attorney General in New Jersey, a civil rights lawyer and professor, and longtime education reform advocate.

Who:

  • Senator Bob Duff – Senate Majority Leader
  • Senator Doug McCrory – Co-Chair of Senate Education Committee
  • Senator Will Haskell – Co-Chair of Higher Education and Employment Advancement Committee
  • Shavar Jeffries – DFER National President, Civil Rights Attorney

When: Wednesday, July 1 at 7:00 PM

Where: RSVP Here

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About Democrats for Education Reform CT:

DFER CT is an organization that supports elected Democrats and candidates who are champions of public education. Education progressives, we’re building a pipeline of Democratic leaders who will improve our education system so that it better serves students and families. As part of realizing the American Dream, we advance policies and practices based on democratic values, with a goal of: increasing equity, protecting civil rights and the social safety net, and promoting great educational opportunities for all. DFER CT is the state chapter of a national political organization. It is the sister organization to Education Reform Now CT.

DFER CT Responds to School Reopening Plan

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

JUNE 29, 2020

CONTACT: Amy Dowell | Amy@dfer.org

April 29, 2020 — Rethinking the logistics of how we educate children in a pandemic is no easy task. The plans put forward today by Governor Lamont’s administration are substantive and thoughtful, and we are grateful for the hard work of Commissioner Cardona and his team. In response to the state’s new reopening plan, Amy Dowell, State Director of Democrats for Education Reform CT, made the following statement:

“We appreciate the focus of the Governor and Commissioner on safety, and their clear goal of getting all students back into classrooms this fall. However, there is a critical area where the plan falls short, and where we hope it can still be improved: Connecticut needs a statewide diagnostic assessment, administered upon the reopening of school doors, to determine the extent of the COVID-slide. Children in our state have had wildly disparate experiences learning from home, and even before COVID-19, students were not receiving an equitable education. If we do not insist on uniform requirements and measurements in each and every community—measurements informed by fresh data—we will perpetuate the inequalities we already know exist. Connecticut can help all its students only if we know how they have been individually impacted by the loss of traditional schooling at the end of the 2019-20 school year, and if we require all communities to address their needs in a uniform way.

“And yet, this plan specifically states that ‘one does not need to administer a new test to ‘assess’ students in fall 2020,’ and that we can instead rely on old data and unscientific observation to inform our efforts. The plan boldly lays out equity in its introduction as a driving principle, saying that Connecticut should ‘interrupt status quo ways of doing things that perpetuate inequities.’ We couldn’t agree more— so why are we reverting to our old ways? How can Connecticut interrupt the status quo without a clear understanding of how students have been impacted? How can we further the cause of equity without a consistent effort from town to town and district to district? Who will be left behind in this plan?

“Connecticut is now a leader in lowering COVID-19 transmission rates, and it should also be a leader in preparing for the 2020-21 school year. We can do it by improving upon these plans, by undertaking the self-reflective step of a real assessment, and by requiring that districts all set a high bar for providing children a first rate education this fall.”

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About Democrats for Education Reform CT:

The state chapter of a national organization, Democrats for Education Reform CT advocates for change guided by progressive values. We seek to promote great educational opportunities and achievement for all by increasing equity, protecting civil rights, and strengthening the social safety net. We are building a political pipeline of Democratic leaders who will improve our education system so that it better serves students and families.

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